In the third and final part, Peter Argent looks at the top six teams and their chances of moving up the ladder.
6th St Kilda – 13 wins, 10 losses
INS – Riley Bonner (Pre-Season Draft), Lance Collard (No.28 draft pick), Paddy Dow (trade, Carlton), Hugo Garcia (No.50 draft pick), Angus Hastie (No.33 draft pick), Liam Henry (trade, Fremantle), Liam O’Connell (Category B rookie), Arie Schoenmaker (No.62 draft pick), Darcy Wilson (No.18 draft pick).
OUTS – Oscar Adams (delisted), Jack Billings (trade, Melbourne), Jack Bytel (delisted), Nick Coffield (trade, Western Bulldogs), Leo Connolly (delisted), Jade Gresham (free agent, Essendon), Tom Highmore (delisted), Dan McKenzie (delisted), Jack Peris (delisted).
Prognosis – Ross Lyon’s return season at St Kilda got off to a flyer in 2023 and held on to take part in the major round. They have a young combination and have lost Jake Billings and Jade Gresham during the trade period.
Prediction – I expect the Saints may regress in 2024, and may even miss the top eight, although their pre-season form does suggest otherwise.
5th Carlton – 13 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw
INS – Matt Carroll (Rookie Draft), Orazio Fantasia (delisted free agent), Elijah Hollands (trade, Gold Coast), Ashton Moir (No.29 draft pick), Rob Monahan (international rookie), Billy Wilson (No.34 draft pick).
OUTS – Ed Curnow (retired), Paddy Dow (trade, St Kilda), Zac Fisher (trade, North Melbourne), Josh Honey (delisted), Lochie O’Brien (delisted), Sam Philp (delisted), Lachie Plowman (retired).
Prognosis – After an up and down minor round, the Blues’ finals series was outstanding, showing plenty of growth from the previous year. They need to sort out the forward line structure, finding consistent small forward and tall support for Charlie Curnow.
Prediction – Should be in the mix to play in the major round, and at their best are a top four side. Maybe still a season or two away from a berth in the big dance.
4th Melbourne – 16 wins, 7 losses
INS – Jack Billings (trade, St Kilda), Kynan Brown (Rookie Draft, father-son), Tom Fullarton (trade, Brisbane), Marty Hore (SSP, Williamstown VFL), Shane McAdam (trade, Adelaide), Koltyn Tholstrup (No.13 draft pick), Caleb Windsor (No.7 draft pick).
OUTS – Luke Dunstan (retired), Brodie Grundy (trade, Sydney), James Harmes (trade, Western Bulldogs), Michael Hibberd (retired), James Jordon (free agent, Sydney), Deakyn Smith (delisted), Kye Turner (delisted).
Prognosis – Considering the fourth place finish at the end of the minor round, since the Covid year victory of 2021, Melbourne’s finals record has been very disappointing and must be addressed.
They had big issues up forward and have recruited Shane McAdam as a medium forward, but will need to restructure their attack end to be competitive when it counts.
Prediction – Still a top four contender with the quality they have through the middle of the ground and their captain Max Gawn leading the ruck.
3rd – Port Adelaide – 17 wins, 6 losses
INS – Thomas Anastasopoulos (No.48 draft pick), Lachlan Charleson (No.52 draft pick), Will Lorenz (No.57 draft pick), Esava Ratugolea (trade, Geelong), Ivan Soldo (trade, Richmond), Jordon Sweet (trade, Western Bulldogs), Xavier Walsh (Rookie Draft), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (trade, Essendon).
OUTS – Nathan Barkla (delisted), Riley Bonner (delisted), Trent Dumont (delisted), Xavier Duursma (trade, Essendon), Orazio Fantasia (delisted), Sam Hayes (delisted), Tom Jonas (retired), Scott Lycett (retired), Jake Pasini (delisted), Brynn Teakle (delisted).
Prognosis – There are still question marks about Port Adelaide delivering in ‘big’ games. Their elite players – Connor Rozee, Zac Butters and Jason Horne-Francis – are up with the best talent in the league. Whether the recruitment of Esava Ratugolea and SA lad Brandon Zerk-Thatcher has fixed issues in defence is questionable and the ability to have a consistent target in attack is also another problem area.
Prediction – Port are supposed to be in the premiership window, I think they may actually slide this year, putting more pressure on coach Ken Hinkley.
2nd Brisbane Lions – 17 wins, 6 losses
INS – Tom Doedee (free agent, Adelaide), Luke Lloyd (No.42 draft pick), Logan Morris (No.31 draft pick), Bruce Reville (Category B rookie, Academy), Brandon Ryan (trade, Hawthorn), Reece Torrent (No.64 draft pick), Zane Zakostelsky (No.51 draft pick).
OUTS – Marcus Adams (retired), Nakia Cockatoo (retired), Blake Coleman (delisted), Tom Fullarton (trade, Melbourne), Jack Gunston (trade, Hawthorn), Rhys Mathieson (delisted), Darryl McDowell-White Jnr (delisted), Daniel Rich (retired).
Prognosis – They were within striking distance of their first flag in 20 years deep into the decider, and the list hasn’t had much adjustment during the off-season. The addition of Tom Doedee is a win in defence and they have game breakers up forward in Zac Bailey, Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher
Prediction – A definite top four contender and one of the pre-season flag favourites. They are a complete side.
Premiers Collingwood – 18 wins, five losses
INS – Harry DeMattia (No.25 draft pick), Jack Bytel (SSP, St Kilda), Josh Eyre (SSP, Collingwood VFL), Lachie Schultz (trade, Fremantle), Lachie Sullivan (SSP, Footscray VFL) Tew Jiath (No.37 draft pick).
OUTS – Taylor Adams (trade, Sydney), Trent Bianco (delisted), Arlo Draper (delisted), Jack Ginnivan (trade, Hawthorn), Will Kelly (delisted), Cooper Murley (delisted), Trey Ruscoe (delisted), Tom Wilson (delisted).
Prognosis – No doubt the competition pace setters in ’23, Collingwood know how to win.
They have added Lachie Schultz at the expense of Jack Ginnivan, which is seen as a win in many good judges’ eyes. There is still plenty of growth expected in young stars Josh and Nick Dacois, while the club is well led by Darcy Moore, and still have evergreen veterans Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom.
Prediction – Expect Collingwood to be up and firing again at the business end of the year, playing at a minimum in the Preliminary Final. They could be the third team this century to win back-to-back flags and follow in Brisbane’s (2001-02-03) and Hawthorn’s (2013-14-15) footsteps. Is there a Magpies dynasty beckoning?
